MeritValue

Public Storage

PSAdata completeness 88%19 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Public Storage earns about 15% on invested capital, with a roughly flat share count. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $122.07 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$3.42B1$4.18B2$4.52B3$4.7B3$4.82B3
Net income$1.95B4$4.35B5$2.15B6$2.07B6$1.78B6
Operating cash flow$2.54B7$3.12B8$3.25B9$3.13B9$3.19B9
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt$7.48B10$6.87B11$9.1B12$9.35B13$10.3B13
Cash & equivalents$734.6M14$775.3M15$370M15$447.4M15$318.1M15
Diluted shares175.6M176.3M176.1M176.0M175.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$525.75
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$101.44
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$582.93

10 shares is a claim on $525.75 of net worth that earned you $101.44 last year, against $582.93 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
15% avg · 5y
FY21 13%FY22 28%FY23 13%FY24 13%FY25 11%

It earned an average 15% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+0% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has risen 37% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$122.07
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$2.07B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$103.24
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001393311-24-000043 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001393311-25-000036 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-007696 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001393311-24-000043 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001393311-25-000036 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-007696 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001393311-24-000043 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001393311-25-000036 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-007696 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001393311-23-000012 (LongTermDebt)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001393311-24-000043 (LongTermDebt)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001393311-25-000036 (LongTermDebt)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-007696 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001393311-25-000036 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-007696 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)