Privia Health Group, Inc.
PRVAdata completeness 75%7 fiscal years on fileData notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'
Privia Health Group, Inc. earns about -26% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 25% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $1.16 and $22.09 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $966.2M1 | $1.36B2 | $1.66B3 | $1.74B3 | $2.12B3 |
| Net income | −$188.2M4 | −$8.59M5 | $23.1M6 | $14.4M6 | $22.9M6 |
| Operating cash flow | $55.1M7 | $47.2M8 | $80.8M9 | $109.3M9 | $163.4M9 |
| Capital expenditure | $547,00010 | $104,00010 | $113,00010 | — | — |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $54.5M7 | $47.1M8 | $80.7M9 | — | — |
| Total debt | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cash & equivalents | $320.6M11 | $348M12 | $389.5M13 | $491.1M14 | $479.7M14 |
| Diluted shares | 103.0M | 110.7M | 124.7M | 125.6M | 128.9M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $57.2 of net worth that earned you $1.78 last year.
It earned about -26% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is up 25% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $1.16 and $22.09 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth15.8%
- fcfBase$54.5M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth15.8%
- fcfBase$54.5M
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$14.4M
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $9.76 |
| Base | 15.8% | $15.4 |
| Bull | 20.0% | $17.51 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 15.8%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001759655-24-000022 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001759655-25-000018 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001759655-26-000010 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001759655-24-000022 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001759655-25-000018 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001759655-26-000010 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001759655-24-000022 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001759655-25-000018 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001759655-26-000010 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001759655-24-000022 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001759655-23-000026 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001759655-24-000022 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001759655-25-000018 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001759655-26-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)