MeritValue

PRUDENTIAL FINANCIAL INC

PRUdata completeness 88%19 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'capex'

The thesis, from the filings

PRUDENTIAL FINANCIAL INC earns about 11% on invested capital, and has bought back 9% of its shares over 5 years. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $79.9 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$71.2B1$56.9B2$54B3$70.4B3$60.8B3
Net income$8.87B4−$1.65B5$2.49B6$2.73B6$3.58B6
Operating cash flow$9.81B7$5.16B8$6.51B9$8.5B9$6.27B9
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt$19.3B10$20.7B11$19.5B12$20.1B13$20.3B13
Cash & equivalents$12.9B14$17.3B15$19.4B16$18.5B16$19.7B16
Diluted shares390.1M372.3M364.6M359.3M353.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$917.1
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$101.1
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$573.9

10 shares is a claim on $917.1 of net worth that earned you $101.1 last year, against $573.9 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
11% avg · 5y
FY21 15%FY22 -1%FY23 14%FY24 15%FY25 11%

It earned an average 11% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−9% shares · 5y

Share count is down 9% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$79.9
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$2.73B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$143.58
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001137774-24-000045 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001137774-25-000044 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001137774-26-000048 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001137774-24-000045 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001137774-25-000044 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001137774-26-000048 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001137774-24-000045 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001137774-25-000044 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001137774-26-000048 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001137774-23-000040 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001137774-24-000045 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001137774-25-000044 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001137774-26-000048 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001137774-24-000045 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001137774-25-000044 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001137774-26-000048 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)