MeritValue

PROVIDENT FINANCIAL HOLDINGS INC

PROVdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'

The thesis, from the filings

PROVIDENT FINANCIAL HOLDINGS INC earns about 31% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 13% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $11.59 and $25.22 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025FY 2026
Revenue$34.7M1$46M2$54.7M3$56.6M4$55.9M4
Net income$9.09M5$8.59M6$7.35M7$6.26M8$6.66M8
Operating cash flow$11.8M9$16.3M10$5.69M11$8.69M12$8.97M12
Capital expenditure$165,00013$741,00014$1.59M15$530,00016$432,00016
Free cash flow (derived)$11.6M9$15.6M10$4.1M11$8.16M12$8.54M12
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$23.4M17$65.8M18$51.4M19$53.1M20$49.2M20
Diluted shares7.4M7.2M7.0M6.8M6.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$194.7
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$10.27
Free cash flow it threw off
$13.17
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $194.7 of net worth that earned you $10.27 and generated $13.17 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
31% avg · 5y
FY22 11%FY23 23%FY24 41%FY25 41%FY26 41%

It earned about 31% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−13% shares · 5y

Share count is down 13% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $11.59 and $25.22 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$23.91
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.8%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$8.16M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$25.22
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.8%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$8.16M
Earnings Power Value
$11.59
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.8%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$7.35M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$21.61
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)9.06%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $25.22
The three cases
Bear0.0%$25.22
Base0.0%$25.22
Bull5.0%$29.48

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0000939057-23-000267 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0000939057-24-000247 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0000939057-25-000242 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2025-06-30 · accession 0001010470-26-000010 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0000939057-23-000267 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0000939057-24-000247 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0000939057-25-000242 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2025-06-30 · accession 0001010470-26-000010 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0000939057-23-000267 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0000939057-24-000247 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0000939057-25-000242 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2025-06-30 · accession 0001010470-26-000010 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0000939057-23-000267 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0000939057-24-000247 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0000939057-25-000242 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2025-06-30 · accession 0001010470-26-000010 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0000939057-23-000267 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0000939057-24-000247 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0000939057-25-000242 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2025-06-30 · accession 0001010470-26-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)