MeritValue

PROVIDENT FINANCIAL HOLDINGS INC

PROVdata completeness 88%16 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

PROVIDENT FINANCIAL HOLDINGS INC earns about 27% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 10% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $11.59 and $25.09 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$35.2M1$34.7M2$46M3$54.7M4$56.6M4
Net income$7.56M5$9.09M6$8.59M7$7.35M8$6.26M8
Operating cash flow$11.6M9$11.8M10$16.3M11$5.69M12$8.69M12
Capital expenditure$225,00013$165,00014$741,00015$1.59M16$530,00016
Free cash flow (derived)$11.3M9$11.6M10$15.6M11$4.1M12$8.16M12
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$70.3M17$23.4M18$65.8M19$51.4M20$53.1M20
Diluted shares7.5M7.4M7.2M7.0M6.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$190.13
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$9.25
Free cash flow it threw off
$12.06
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $190.13 of net worth that earned you $9.25 and generated $12.06 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
27% avg · 5y
FY21 19%FY22 11%FY23 23%FY24 41%FY25 41%

It earned about 27% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−10% shares · 5y

Share count is down 10% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $11.59 and $25.09 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$23.79
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$8.16M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$25.09
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$8.16M
Earnings Power Value
$11.59
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$7.56M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$19.95
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $25.09
The three cases
Bear0.0%$25.09
Base0.0%$25.09
Bull5.0%$29.26

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0000939057-22-000275 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0000939057-23-000267 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0000939057-24-000247 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0000939057-25-000242 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0000939057-22-000275 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0000939057-23-000267 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0000939057-24-000247 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0000939057-25-000242 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0000939057-22-000275 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0000939057-23-000267 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0000939057-24-000247 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0000939057-25-000242 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0000939057-22-000275 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0000939057-23-000267 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0000939057-24-000247 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0000939057-25-000242 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0000939057-22-000275 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0000939057-23-000267 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0000939057-24-000247 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0000939057-25-000242 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)