MeritValue

Prairie Operating Co.

PROPdata completeness 75%16 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Prairie Operating Co. earns about -298% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 851% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$369,8041$517,6021$1.55M2$7.94M3$241.6M3
Net income−$17.3M4−$13.4M4−$79.1M5−$40.9M6$32.1M6
Operating cash flow−$6.97M7−$2.19M7−$11.9M8−$9.35M9$153.9M9
Capital expenditure$2.32M10$5.3M10$200,00011——
Free cash flow (derived)−$9.29M7−$7.49M7−$12.1M8——
Total debt———$28M12—
Cash & equivalents$2.79M13$79,84514$13M15$5.19M16$20,00016
Diluted shares4.8M11.6M4.8M15.5M45.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$28.78
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$7.09
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $28.78 of net worth that earned you $7.09 last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-298% avg · 5y
FY21 -1008%FY22 —FY23 -180%FY24 -40%FY25 38%

It earned an average -298% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+851% shares · 5y

Share count is up 851% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493152-23-010117 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K/A · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-010692 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001140361-26-012036 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493152-23-010117 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001493152-25-009423 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001140361-26-012036 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493152-23-010117 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001493152-25-009423 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001140361-26-012036 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493152-23-010117 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K/A · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-010692 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001493152-25-009423 (LongTermDebt)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493152-23-010117 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-010692 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001493152-25-009423 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001140361-26-012036 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)