MeritValue

Profound Medical Corp.

PROFdata completeness 100%7 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Profound Medical Corp. earns about -146% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 46% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$6.87M1$6.68M2$5.9M3$9.74M3$16.1M4
Net income−$30.7M5−$28.7M6−$28.3M7−$27.8M8−$42.6M8
Operating cash flow−$22.4M9−$25.8M10−$22.6M11−$23.5M12−$38.2M12
Capital expenditure$32,00013———$176,00014
Free cash flow (derived)−$22.4M9———−$38.4M12
Total debt—$14.3M15$21.3M16$9.32M17$9M17
Cash & equivalents$67.2M18$46.5M19$26.2M20$54.9M21$59.7M21
Diluted shares20.8M20.9M21.2M24.8M30.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$21.97
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$14.08
Free cash flow it threw off
−$12.7
Debt you’d be carrying
$2.98

10 shares is a claim on $21.97 of net worth that earned you −$14.08 and generated −$12.7 of cash last year, against $2.98 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-146% avg · 5y
FY21 -179%FY22 -110%FY23 -85%FY24 -145%FY25 -211%

It earned an average -146% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+46% shares · 5y

Share count is up 46% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 37% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 2 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 2 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
$8.35
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 40-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001410578-23-000212 (Revenue)
  2. 40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001410578-24-000149 (Revenue)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000300 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-024153 (Revenues)
  5. 40-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001410578-23-000212 (ProfitLoss)
  6. 40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001410578-24-000149 (ProfitLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000300 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-024153 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 40-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001410578-23-000212 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001410578-24-000149 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000300 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-024153 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 40-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001410578-23-000212 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-024153 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000300 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000300 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-024153 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  18. 40-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001410578-24-000149 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000300 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000300 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  21. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-024153 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)