Primo Brands Corp
PRMBdata completeness 100%4 fiscal years on fileData notes: no data for concept 'interestExpense'
Primo Brands Corp earns about -122% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 72% over 4 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $0.04 and $21.89 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $4.44B1 | $4.7B2 | $5.15B2 | $6.66B2 |
| Net income | −$126.7M3 | $92.8M4 | −$16.4M4 | $60.1M4 |
| Operating cash flow | $108.3M5 | $320.9M6 | $463.8M6 | $680.3M6 |
| Capital expenditure | $258.5M7 | $203.6M8 | $150.2M8 | $377.4M8 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | −$150.2M5 | $117.3M6 | $313.6M6 | $302.9M6 |
| Total debt | — | $3.48B9 | $10.1B10 | $10.2B10 |
| Cash & equivalents | $105.8M11 | $44.7M12 | $613.7M13 | $376.7M13 |
| Diluted shares | 218.3M | 218.3M | 242.3M | 374.9M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $79.83 of net worth that earned you $1.6 and generated $8.08 of cash last year, against $273.06 of debt.
It earned about -122% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is up 72% over 4 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 194% over the same window.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $0.04 and $21.89 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth20.0%
- fcfBase$302.9M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth20.0%
- fcfBase$302.9M
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$21.9M
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | −$14.76 |
| Base | 20.0% | $0.04 |
| Bull | 20.0% | $0.04 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0002042694-25-000003 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012779 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0002042694-25-000003 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012779 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0002042694-25-000003 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivitiesContinuingOperations)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012779 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivitiesContinuingOperations)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0002042694-25-000003 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012779 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0002042694-25-000003 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012779 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0002042694-25-000003 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0002042694-25-000003 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012779 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)