MeritValue

Perimeter Solutions, Inc.

PRMdata completeness 100%6 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Perimeter Solutions, Inc. earns about 1% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 183% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $1.67 and $15.4 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2020FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$339.6M1$360.5M2$322.1M3$561M3$652.9M3
Net income$24.2M4$91.8M5$67.5M6−$5.91M6−$206.4M6
Operating cash flow$70.8M7−$40.2M8$193,0009$188.4M9$238.1M9
Capital expenditure$7.5M10$8.61M11$9.44M12$15.5M12$29.6M12
Free cash flow (derived)$63.3M7−$48.8M8−$9.24M9$172.9M9$208.6M9
Total debt$1.37B13$1.33B14$1.33B15$1.34B16$1.34B16
Cash & equivalents$22.5M17$126.8M18$47.3M19$198.5M20$325.9M20
Diluted shares53.0M175.1M166.5M145.7M150.4M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$75.37
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$13.72
Free cash flow it threw off
$13.87
Debt you’d be carrying
$89

10 shares is a claim on $75.37 of net worth that earned you −$13.72 and generated $13.87 of cash last year, against $89 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
1% avg · 5y
FY20 3%FY22 6%FY23 4%FY24 -2%FY25 -9%

It earned about 1% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+183% shares · 5y

Share count is up 183% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $1.67 and $15.4 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$15.4
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$172.9M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$13.67
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$172.9M
Earnings Power Value
$1.67
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$24.2M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $13.67
The three cases
Bear0.0%$9.69
Base5.0%$13.67
Bull10.0%$18.42

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001880319-23-000026 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001880319-25-000021 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001880319-26-000013 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001880319-23-000026 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001880319-25-000021 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001880319-26-000013 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001880319-23-000026 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001880319-25-000021 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001880319-26-000013 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001880319-23-000026 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001880319-25-000021 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001880319-26-000013 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001880319-22-000007 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001880319-24-000007 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001880319-25-000021 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001880319-26-000013 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001880319-22-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001880319-24-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001880319-25-000021 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001880319-26-000013 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)