MeritValue

Prelude Therapeutics Inc

PRLDdata completeness 88%7 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'; no data for concept 'pretaxIncome'

The thesis, from the filings

Prelude Therapeutics Inc earns about -78% on equity, but has diluted owners by 67% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue———$7M1$12.1M1
Net income−$111.7M2−$115.4M3−$121.8M4−$127.2M5−$99.5M5
Operating cash flow−$83.5M6−$83.7M7−$107.1M8−$102.9M9−$56.3M9
Capital expenditure$2.32M10$3.02M11$3.51M12$764,00013$67,00013
Free cash flow (derived)−$85.9M6−$86.7M7−$110.6M8−$103.7M9−$56.4M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$31.8M14$30.6M15$25.3M16$12.5M17$35.3M17
Diluted shares46.0M47.4M60.4M75.8M77.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$8.92
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$12.93
Free cash flow it threw off
−$7.32
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $8.92 of net worth that earned you −$12.93 and generated −$7.32 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-78% avg · 5y
FY21 -39%FY22 -59%FY23 -51%FY24 -97%FY25 -145%

It earned an average -78% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+67% shares · 5y

Share count is up 67% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-099428 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-007989 (NetIncomeLoss)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-016016 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-035921 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-099428 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-007989 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-016016 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-035921 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-099428 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-007989 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-016016 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-035921 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-099428 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-007989 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-016016 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-035921 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-099428 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)