MeritValue

Proto Labs Inc

PRLBdata completeness 88%16 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

Proto Labs Inc earns about 0% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 12% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $7.36 and $97.43 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$488.1M1$488.4M2$503.9M3$500.9M3$533.1M3
Net income$33.4M4−$103.5M5$17.2M6$16.6M6$21.2M6
Operating cash flow$55.2M7$62.1M8$73.3M9$77.8M9$74.5M9
Capital expenditure$34.2M10$21.7M11$28.1M12$9.17M12$14.8M12
Free cash flow (derived)$21M7$40.4M8$45.2M9$68.7M9$59.7M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$65.9M13$56.6M14$83.8M15$89.1M16$110.8M16
Diluted shares27.7M27.4M26.2M25.2M24.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$277.97
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$8.76
Free cash flow it threw off
$24.61
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $277.97 of net worth that earned you $8.76 and generated $24.61 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
0% avg · 5y
FY21 4%FY22 -12%FY23 3%FY24 3%FY25 4%

It earned about 0% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−12% shares · 5y

Share count is down 12% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $7.36 and $97.43 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$97.43
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth13.9%
  • fcfBase$59.7M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$67.64
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth13.9%
  • fcfBase$59.7M
Earnings Power Value
$7.36
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$17.2M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$23.46
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years13.9%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $67.64
The three cases
Bear0.0%$39.73
Base13.9%$67.64
Bull18.9%$81.41

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 13.9%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-005285 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-007052 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001443669-26-000010 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-005285 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-007052 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001443669-26-000010 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-005285 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-007052 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001443669-26-000010 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-005285 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-007052 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001443669-26-000010 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-003930 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-005285 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-007052 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001443669-26-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)