MeritValue

Primoris Services Corp

PRIMdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Primoris Services Corp earns about 7% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 3% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $25.15 and $112.24 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$3.5B1$4.42B2$5.72B3$6.37B3$7.57B3
Net income$115.7M4$133M5$126.1M6$180.9M6$274.9M6
Operating cash flow$79.7M7$83.3M8$198.5M9$508.3M9$470.4M9
Capital expenditure$133.8M10$94.7M11$103M12$126.5M12$129.9M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$54.1M7−$11.3M8$95.5M9$381.8M9$340.5M9
Total debt$1.32B13$2.29B14$1.92B15$1.47B16$939.8M16
Cash & equivalents$200.5M17$248.7M18$217.8M18$455.8M18$535.5M18
Diluted shares53.2M53.8M54.2M54.6M54.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$306.75
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$50.16
Free cash flow it threw off
$62.14
Debt you’d be carrying
$171.5

10 shares is a claim on $306.75 of net worth that earned you $50.16 and generated $62.14 of cash last year, against $171.5 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
7% avg · 5y
FY21 5%FY22 4%FY23 4%FY24 7%FY25 13%

It earned about 7% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+3% shares · 5y

Share count is up 3% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 29% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $25.15 and $112.24 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$112.24
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$340.5M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$102.89
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$340.5M
Earnings Power Value
$25.15
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$133M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$58.86
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $102.89
The three cases
Bear0.0%$81.4
Base5.0%$102.89
Bull10.0%$128.6

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001719 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001397 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-018677 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001719 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001397 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-018677 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001719 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001397 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-018677 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001719 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001397 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-018677 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-002191 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001719 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001397 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-018677 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001397 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-018677 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)