MeritValue

PROGRESS SOFTWARE CORP /MA

PRGSdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

PROGRESS SOFTWARE CORP /MA earns about 8% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $17.22 and $34.84 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$531.3M1$602M2$694.4M3$753.4M3$977.8M3
Net income$78.4M4$95.1M5$70.2M6$68.4M6$73.1M6
Operating cash flow$178.5M7$192.2M8$173.9M9$211.5M9$235.2M9
Capital expenditure$4.65M10$6.09M11$5.57M12$5.21M12$5.7M12
Free cash flow (derived)$173.9M7$186.1M8$168.4M9$206.3M9$229.5M9
Total debt$560.3M13$618.1M14$724M15$3.05B16$2.8B16
Cash & equivalents$155.4M17$256.3M18$127M19$118.1M20$94.8M20
Diluted shares44.6M44.2M44.7M44.4M44.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$108.67
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$16.61
Free cash flow it threw off
$52.13
Debt you’d be carrying
$636.25

10 shares is a claim on $108.67 of net worth that earned you $16.61 and generated $52.13 of cash last year, against $636.25 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
8% avg · 5y
FY21 12%FY22 14%FY23 9%FY24 2%FY25 2%

It earned about 8% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−1% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has risen 400% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $17.22 and $34.84 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$34.84
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.9%
  • fcfBase$206.3M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$24.8
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.9%
  • fcfBase$206.3M
Earnings Power Value
$17.22
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$73.1M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$20.15
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.9%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $24.8
The three cases
Bear0.0%$5.49
Base5.9%$24.8
Bull10.9%$44.79

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.9%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-11-30 · accession 0000876167-24-000031 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-11-30 · accession 0000876167-25-000010 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-11-30 · accession 0000876167-26-000008 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-11-30 · accession 0000876167-24-000031 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-11-30 · accession 0000876167-25-000010 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-11-30 · accession 0000876167-26-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-11-30 · accession 0000876167-24-000031 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-11-30 · accession 0000876167-25-000010 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-11-30 · accession 0000876167-26-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-11-30 · accession 0000876167-24-000031 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-11-30 · accession 0000876167-25-000010 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-11-30 · accession 0000876167-26-000008 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-11-30 · accession 0000876167-22-000038 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-11-30 · accession 0000876167-23-000036 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-11-30 · accession 0000876167-24-000031 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-11-30 · accession 0000876167-26-000008 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-11-30 · accession 0000876167-23-000036 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-11-30 · accession 0000876167-24-000031 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-11-30 · accession 0000876167-25-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-11-30 · accession 0000876167-26-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)