MeritValue

PROG Holdings, Inc.

PRGdata completeness 100%8 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

PROG Holdings, Inc. earns about 14% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 38% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $37.22 and $61.05 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$2.68B1$2.6B2$2.34B3$2.4B3$2.41B3
Net income$243.6M4$98.7M5$138.8M6$197.2M6$146.8M6
Operating cash flow$246M7$242.5M8$204.2M9$138.5M9$335M9
Capital expenditure$9.56M10$9.67M11$9.62M12$8.32M12$10M12
Free cash flow (derived)$236.4M7$232.8M8$194.6M9$130.2M9$324.9M9
Total debt$589.7M13$591M14$592.3M15$643.6M16$594.9M16
Cash & equivalents$170.2M17$131.9M18$155.4M19$90.9M20$308.8M20
Diluted shares66.4M52.1M46.5M43.5M40.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$182.66
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$35.92
Free cash flow it threw off
$79.51
Debt you’d be carrying
$145.57

10 shares is a claim on $182.66 of net worth that earned you $35.92 and generated $79.51 of cash last year, against $145.57 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
14% avg · 5y
FY21 23%FY22 12%FY23 11%FY24 14%FY25 12%

It earned about 14% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−38% shares · 5y

Share count is down 38% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $37.22 and $61.05 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$55.92
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$194.6M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$61.05
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$194.6M
Earnings Power Value
$37.22
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$146.8M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$38.41
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $61.05
The three cases
Bear0.0%$61.05
Base0.0%$61.05
Bull5.0%$77.52

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001808834-24-000021 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001808834-25-000009 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001808834-26-000012 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001808834-24-000021 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001808834-25-000009 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001808834-26-000012 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001808834-24-000021 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001808834-25-000009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001808834-26-000012 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001808834-24-000021 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001808834-25-000009 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001808834-26-000012 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001808834-23-000012 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001808834-24-000021 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001808834-25-000009 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001808834-26-000012 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001808834-23-000012 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001808834-24-000021 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001808834-25-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001808834-26-000012 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)