MeritValue

PERDOCEO EDUCATION Corp

PRDOdata completeness 88%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

PERDOCEO EDUCATION Corp earns about 16% on equity, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 7% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $23.12 and $35.58 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$693M1$695.2M2$710M3$681.3M3$846.1M3
Net income$109.6M4$95.9M5$147.7M6$147.6M6$159.9M6
Operating cash flow$191.1M7$148.2M8$112M9$161.6M9$225.2M9
Capital expenditure$10.5M10$12.6M11$6.41M12$4.63M12$8.58M12
Free cash flow (derived)$180.7M7$135.6M8$105.6M9$157M9$216.7M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$320M13$109.4M14$118M15$109.1M16$111M16
Diluted shares70.9M69.0M67.8M67.2M66.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$146.99
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$24.17
Free cash flow it threw off
$32.75
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $146.99 of net worth that earned you $24.17 and generated $32.75 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
16% avg · 5y
FY21 17%FY22 13%FY23 18%FY24 15%FY25 16%

It earned about 16% on equity against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−7% shares · 5y

Share count is down 7% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $23.12 and $35.58 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$33.03
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$157M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$35.58
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$157M
Earnings Power Value
$23.12
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$147.6M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$28.29
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $35.58
The three cases
Bear0.0%$35.58
Base0.0%$35.58
Bull5.0%$43.78

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-017946 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-022187 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-059331 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-017946 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-022187 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-059331 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-017946 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-022187 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-059331 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-017946 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-022187 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-059331 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-004119 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-017946 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-022187 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-059331 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)