MeritValue

PRA GROUP INC

PRAAdata completeness 88%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

PRA GROUP INC earns about -0% on invested capital, and has bought back 14% of its shares over 5 years. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $18.68 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$14.7M1$966.5M2$802.6M3$1.11B3$1.2B3
Net income$183.2M4$117.1M5−$83.5M6$70.6M6−$305.1M6
Operating cash flow$84.9M7$21.6M8−$97.5M9−$94.6M9−$85.5M9
Capital expenditure$11.2M10$13.3M11$2.89M12$4.05M12$4.82M12
Free cash flow (derived)$73.7M7$8.34M8−$100.4M9−$98.6M9−$90.4M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$87.6M13$83.4M14$112.5M15$105.9M15$104.4M15
Diluted shares45.3M39.9M39.2M39.5M39.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$250.13
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$77.9
Free cash flow it threw off
−$23.07
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $250.13 of net worth that earned you −$77.9 and generated −$23.07 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-0% avg · 5y
FY21 24%FY22 19%FY23 8%FY24 -9%FY25 -45%

It earned an average -0% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−14% shares · 5y

Share count is down 14% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
$18.68
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$70.6M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001185348-22-000005 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001185348-25-000006 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001185348-26-000006 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001185348-24-000012 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001185348-25-000006 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001185348-26-000006 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001185348-24-000012 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001185348-25-000006 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001185348-26-000006 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001185348-24-000012 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001185348-25-000006 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001185348-26-000006 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001185348-24-000012 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001185348-25-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001185348-26-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)