MeritValue

Permian Resources Corp

PRdata completeness 88%9 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'capex'

The thesis, from the filings

Permian Resources Corp earns about 10% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 136% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $7.3 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.03B1$2.13B2$3.12B3$5B3$5.07B3
Net income$138.2M4$515M5$476.3M6$984.7M6$935.2M6
Operating cash flow$525.6M7$1.37B8$2.21B9$3.41B9$3.61B9
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt$825.6M10$2.14B11$3.85B12$4.18B13$3.55B13
Cash & equivalents$9.38M14$59.5M15$73.3M16$479.3M16$153.7M16
Diluted shares310.2M322.8M389.1M684.5M731.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$140.61
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$12.79
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$48.51

10 shares is a claim on $140.61 of net worth that earned you $12.79 last year, against $48.51 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
10% avg · 5y
FY21 6%FY22 17%FY23 10%FY24 10%FY25 8%

It earned an average 10% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+136% shares · 5y

Share count is up 136% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 329% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$7.3
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$515M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$20.12
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001658566-24-000018 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001658566-25-000014 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001658566-26-000035 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001658566-24-000018 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001658566-25-000014 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001658566-26-000035 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001658566-24-000018 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001658566-25-000014 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001658566-26-000035 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001658566-23-000019 (LongTermDebt)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001658566-24-000018 (LongTermDebt)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001658566-25-000014 (LongTermDebt)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001658566-26-000035 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001658566-24-000018 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001658566-25-000014 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001658566-26-000035 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)