MeritValue

People Inc

PPLIdata completeness 100%8 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

People Inc earns about -2% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 13% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $15.25 and $47.65 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$3.7B1$5.24B2$2.92B3$2.62B3$2.39B3
Net income$597.5M4−$1.17B5$265.9M6−$539.9M6−$104M6
Operating cash flow$118.9M7−$82.8M8$189.5M8$354.5M8$64M9
Capital expenditure$90.2M10$139.8M11$93.6M12$15M12$19.2M12
Free cash flow (derived)$28.7M7−$222.5M8$95.9M8$339.5M8$44.8M9
Total debt$4.18B13$4.12B14$4.06B15$3.45B16$2.87B16
Cash & equivalents$2.12B17$1.1B18$933.4M18$1.38B18$960.2M18
Diluted shares91.8M86.3M86.5M83.1M80.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$591.16
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$12.99
Free cash flow it threw off
$5.6
Debt you’d be carrying
$358.04

10 shares is a claim on $591.16 of net worth that earned you −$12.99 and generated $5.6 of cash last year, against $358.04 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-2% avg · 5y
FY21 7%FY22 -12%FY23 4%FY24 -7%FY25 -1%

It earned about -2% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−13% shares · 5y

Share count is down 13% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 31% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $15.25 and $47.65 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$47.65
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$95.9M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$15.25
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$95.9M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $15.25
The three cases
Bear0.0%−$6.69
Base20.0%$15.25
Bull20.0%$15.25

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001800227-24-000011 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001800227-25-000013 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-009997 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001800227-24-000011 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001800227-25-000013 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-009997 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001800227-24-000011 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivitiesContinuingOperations)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001800227-25-000013 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-009997 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivitiesContinuingOperations)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001800227-24-000011 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001800227-25-000013 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-009997 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001800227-23-000009 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001800227-24-000011 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001800227-25-000013 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-009997 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001800227-25-000013 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-009997 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)