MeritValue

PPL Corp

PPLdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

PPL Corp earns about 3% on invested capital, and has bought back 3% of its shares over 5 years. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $10.54 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$5.84B1$7.79B2$8.29B3$8.44B3$9.17B3
Net income−$1.48B4$756M5$740M6$888M6$1.18B6
Operating cash flow$2.27B7$1.73B8$1.76B9$2.34B9$2.63B9
Capital expenditure$1.97B10$2.16B11$2.39B12$2.81B12$4.03B12
Free cash flow (derived)$297M7−$425M8−$632M9−$465M9−$1.4B9
Total debt$22.3B13$27.5B14$30.2B15$33.3B16$38.2B16
Cash & equivalents$3.57B17$356M18$331M19$306M20$1.07B20
Diluted shares764.8M736.9M738.2M739.9M743.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$200.19
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$15.89
Free cash flow it threw off
−$18.85
Debt you’d be carrying
$514.48

10 shares is a claim on $200.19 of net worth that earned you $15.89 and generated −$18.85 of cash last year, against $514.48 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
3% avg · 5y
FY21 2%FY22 3%FY23 3%FY24 3%FY25 4%

It earned an average 3% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−3% shares · 5y

Share count is down 3% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 71% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
$10.54
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$756M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$26.76
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000922224-24-000008 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000922224-25-000009 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000922224-26-000008 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000922224-24-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000922224-25-000009 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000922224-26-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000922224-24-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000922224-25-000009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000922224-26-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000922224-24-000008 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000922224-25-000009 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000922224-26-000008 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000922224-23-000010 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000922224-24-000008 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000922224-25-000009 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000922224-26-000008 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000922224-23-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000922224-24-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000922224-25-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000922224-26-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)