MeritValue

PPG INDUSTRIES INC

PPGdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

PPG INDUSTRIES INC earns about 7% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 5% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $9.76 and $57.95 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$16.8B1$15.6B2$16.2B3$15.8B3$15.9B3
Net income$1.44B4$1.03B5$1.27B6$1.12B6$1.58B6
Operating cash flow$1.56B7$963M8$2.41B9$1.42B9$1.94B9
Capital expenditure$371M10$486M11$516M12$721M12$778M12
Free cash flow (derived)$1.19B7$477M8$1.9B9$699M9$1.16B9
Total debt$13.2B13$13.9B14$12.4B15$12.6B16$15.3B16
Cash & equivalents$1.01B17$1.1B18$1.49B19$1.27B20$2.16B20
Diluted shares239.4M237.3M237.2M234.9M227.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$349.67
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$69.4
Free cash flow it threw off
$51.21
Debt you’d be carrying
$674.2

10 shares is a claim on $349.67 of net worth that earned you $69.4 and generated $51.21 of cash last year, against $674.2 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
7% avg · 5y
FY21 8%FY22 6%FY23 8%FY24 8%FY25 8%

It earned about 7% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−5% shares · 5y

Share count is down 5% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 16% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $9.76 and $57.95 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$9.76
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$1.16B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$15.27
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$1.16B
Earnings Power Value
$57.95
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$1.27B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$73.89
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $15.27
The three cases
Bear0.0%$15.27
Base0.0%$15.27
Bull5.0%$32.98

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000079879-24-000040 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000079879-25-000034 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000079879-26-000046 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000079879-24-000040 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000079879-25-000034 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000079879-26-000046 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000079879-24-000040 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000079879-25-000034 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000079879-26-000046 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000079879-24-000040 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000079879-25-000034 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000079879-26-000046 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000079879-23-000007 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000079879-24-000040 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000079879-25-000034 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000079879-26-000046 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000079879-23-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000079879-24-000040 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000079879-25-000034 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000079879-26-000046 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)