MeritValue

POWELL INDUSTRIES INC

POWLdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

POWELL INDUSTRIES INC earns about 49% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 3% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $46.44 and $281.95 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$470.6M1$532.6M2$699.3M3$1.01B3$1.1B3
Net income$631,0004$13.7M5$54.5M6$149.8M6$180.7M6
Operating cash flow−$30.5M7−$3.58M8$182.6M9$108.7M9$167.9M9
Capital expenditure$2.93M10$2.45M11$7.82M12$12M12$13.1M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$33.4M7−$6.03M8$174.7M9$96.7M9$154.8M9
Total debt$800,00013$013———
Cash & equivalents$114.3M14$102M15$245.9M16$315.3M17$450.7M17
Diluted shares11.8M11.9M12.1M12.2M12.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$526.65
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$148.56
Free cash flow it threw off
$127.22
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $526.65 of net worth that earned you $148.56 and generated $127.22 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
49% avg · 5y
FY21 0%FY22 5%FY23 55%FY24 89%FY25 95%

It earned about 49% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+3% shares · 5y

Share count is up 3% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 100% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $46.44 and $281.95 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$281.95
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$154.8M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$262.81
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$154.8M
Earnings Power Value
$46.44
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$54.5M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$132.7
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $262.81
The three cases
Bear0.0%$218.81
Base5.0%$262.81
Bull10.0%$315.46

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000080420-23-000051 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000080420-24-000086 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000080420-25-000152 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000080420-23-000051 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000080420-24-000086 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000080420-25-000152 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000080420-23-000051 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000080420-24-000086 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000080420-25-000152 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000080420-23-000051 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000080420-24-000086 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000080420-25-000152 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000080420-22-000036 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000080420-22-000036 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000080420-23-000051 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000080420-24-000086 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-30 · accession 0000080420-25-000152 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)