MeritValue

Post Holdings, Inc.

POSTdata completeness 100%16 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Post Holdings, Inc. earns about 7% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 4% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $37.74 and $65.11 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$4.98B1$5.85B2$6.99B3$7.92B3$8.16B3
Net income$166.7M4$756.6M5$301.3M6$366.7M6$335.7M6
Operating cash flow$588.2M7$382.6M8$750.3M9$931.7M9$998.3M9
Capital expenditure$190.9M10$255.3M11$303M12$429.5M12$510.2M12
Free cash flow (derived)$397.3M7$127.3M8$447.3M9$502.2M9$488.1M9
Total debt$6.44B13$5.96B14$6.04B15$6.81B16$7.42B16
Cash & equivalents$664.5M17$586.5M18$93.3M19$787.4M20$176.7M20
Diluted shares65.3M62.7M67.0M66.9M62.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$596.68
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$53.37
Free cash flow it threw off
$77.6
Debt you’d be carrying
$1,180.11

10 shares is a claim on $596.68 of net worth that earned you $53.37 and generated $77.6 of cash last year, against $1,180.11 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
7% avg · 5y
FY21 5%FY22 13%FY23 5%FY24 6%FY25 6%

It earned about 7% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−4% shares · 5y

Share count is down 4% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 15% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $37.74 and $65.11 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$65.11
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth7.5%
  • fcfBase$488.1M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$37.74
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth7.5%
  • fcfBase$488.1M
Earnings Power Value
$55.31
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$335.7M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$86.01
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years7.5%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $37.74
The three cases
Bear0.0%−$4.33
Base7.5%$37.74
Bull12.5%$72.75

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 7.5%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001530950-23-000350 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001530950-24-000365 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001530950-25-000260 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001530950-23-000350 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001530950-24-000365 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001530950-25-000260 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001530950-23-000350 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001530950-24-000365 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001530950-25-000260 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001530950-23-000350 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001530950-24-000365 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001530950-25-000260 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001530950-22-000375 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001530950-23-000350 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001530950-24-000365 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-30 · accession 0001530950-25-000260 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001530950-22-000375 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001530950-23-000350 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001530950-24-000365 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-30 · accession 0001530950-25-000260 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)