MeritValue

PORTLAND GENERAL ELECTRIC CO /OR/

PORdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

PORTLAND GENERAL ELECTRIC CO /OR/ earns about 4% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 24% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $22.83 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$2.43B1$2.64B2$2.91B3$3.48B3$3.56B3
Net income$244M4$233M5$228M6$313M6$306M6
Operating cash flow$532M7$674M8$420M9$778M9$1.12B9
Capital expenditure$636M10$766M11$1.36B12$1.27B12$1.19B12
Free cash flow (derived)−$104M7−$92M8−$938M9−$490M9−$71M9
Total debt$6.58B13$7.31B14$8.13B15$9.06B16$9.34B16
Cash & equivalents$52M17$165M18$5M18$12M18$76M18
Diluted shares89.6M89.6M98.0M104.2M110.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$373.22
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$27.63
Free cash flow it threw off
−$6.41
Debt you’d be carrying
$843.51

10 shares is a claim on $373.22 of net worth that earned you $27.63 and generated −$6.41 of cash last year, against $843.51 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
4% avg · 5y
FY21 4%FY22 4%FY23 3%FY24 4%FY25 4%

It earned an average 4% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+24% shares · 5y

Share count is up 24% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 42% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
$22.83
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$244M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$48.23
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000784977-24-000034 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000784977-25-000012 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-052750 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000784977-24-000034 (ProfitLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000784977-25-000012 (ProfitLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-052750 (ProfitLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000784977-24-000034 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000784977-25-000012 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-052750 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000784977-24-000034 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000784977-25-000012 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-052750 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000784977-23-000005 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000784977-24-000034 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000784977-25-000012 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-052750 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000784977-25-000012 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-052750 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)