MeritValue

POOL CORP

POOLdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

POOL CORP earns about 24% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 8% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $145.41 and $728.84 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$5.3B1$6.18B2$5.54B3$5.31B3$5.29B3
Net income$650.6M4$748.5M5$523.2M6$434.3M6$406.4M6
Operating cash flow$313.5M7$484.9M8$888.2M9$659.2M9$365.9M9
Capital expenditure$37.7M10$43.6M11$60.1M12$59.5M12$56.3M12
Free cash flow (derived)$275.8M7$441.2M8$828.1M9$599.7M9$309.5M9
Total debt$1.18B13$1.41B14$1.09B15$999.8M16$1.21B16
Cash & equivalents$24.3M17$45.6M18$66.5M18$77.9M18$105M18
Diluted shares40.5M39.8M39.0M38.2M37.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$317.86
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$108.99
Free cash flow it threw off
$83.01
Debt you’d be carrying
$325.17

10 shares is a claim on $317.86 of net worth that earned you $108.99 and generated $83.01 of cash last year, against $325.17 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
24% avg · 5y
FY21 29%FY22 29%FY23 22%FY24 20%FY25 18%

It earned about 24% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−8% shares · 5y

Share count is down 8% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $145.41 and $728.84 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$728.84
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth16.9%
  • fcfBase$599.7M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$434.12
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth16.9%
  • fcfBase$599.7M
Earnings Power Value
$145.41
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$523.2M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$88.09
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years16.9%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $434.12
The three cases
Bear0.0%$200.09
Base16.9%$434.12
Bull20.0%$494.67

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 16.9%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000945841-24-000021 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000945841-25-000032 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-074833 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000945841-24-000021 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000945841-25-000032 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-074833 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000945841-24-000021 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000945841-25-000032 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-074833 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000945841-24-000021 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000945841-25-000032 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-074833 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000945841-23-000015 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000945841-24-000021 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000945841-25-000032 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-074833 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000945841-25-000032 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-074833 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)