MeritValue

Pony AI Inc.

PONYdata completeness 88%4 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

Pony AI Inc. earns about -28% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 345% over 4 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$68.4M1$71.9M2$75M2$90M2
Net income−$148M3−$124.8M4−$274.1M4−$134M4
Operating cash flow−$154.8M5−$115.4M6−$110.8M6−$165M6
Capital expenditure$12M7$5.09M8$11.4M8$43.9M8
Free cash flow (derived)−$166.8M5−$120.5M6−$122.2M6−$208.8M6
Total debt$3.95M9———
Cash & equivalents$316.3M10$426M11$536M11$293.5M11
Diluted shares85.3M89.1M114.3M379.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$43.49
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$3.53
Free cash flow it threw off
−$5.5
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $43.49 of net worth that earned you −$3.53 and generated −$5.5 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-28% avg · 4y
FY22 —FY23 —FY24 -52%FY25 -4%

It earned an average -28% on invested capital over 4 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+345% shares · 4y

Share count is up 345% over 4 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000895 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-046406 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000895 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-046406 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000895 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-046406 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000895 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-046406 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000895 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000895 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-046406 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)