INSULET CORP
PODDdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on fileINSULET CORP earns about 86% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 5% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $29.74 and $91.46 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.04B1 | $1.06B1 | $1.7B2 | $2.07B2 | $2.71B2 |
| Net income | $16.8M3 | $4.6M4 | $206.3M5 | $418.3M5 | $247.1M5 |
| Operating cash flow | −$68.1M6 | $119M7 | $145.7M8 | $430.2M8 | $569.3M8 |
| Capital expenditure | $111.9M9 | $122.9M10 | $75.6M11 | $124.9M11 | $191.6M11 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | −$180M6 | −$3.9M7 | $70.1M8 | $305.3M8 | $377.7M8 |
| Total debt | $2.55B12 | $2.8B12 | $49.4M13 | $83.8M14 | $18.4M14 |
| Cash & equivalents | $806.4M15 | $689.8M16 | $704.2M16 | $953.4M16 | $716.1M16 |
| Diluted shares | 68.6M | 69.9M | 73.6M | 73.9M | 71.9M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $210.78 of net worth that earned you $34.37 and generated $52.54 of cash last year, against $2.56 of debt.
It earned about 86% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is up 5% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 99% — deleveraging.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $29.74 and $91.46 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth5.0%
- fcfBase$305.3M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth5.0%
- fcfBase$305.3M
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$206.3M
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $70.39 |
| Base | 5.0% | $85.07 |
| Bull | 10.0% | $102.65 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001145197-23-000020 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001145197-26-000028 (Revenues)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001145197-24-000011 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001145197-25-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001145197-26-000028 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001145197-24-000011 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001145197-25-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001145197-26-000028 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001145197-24-000011 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001145197-25-000007 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001145197-26-000028 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001145197-23-000020 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001145197-25-000007 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001145197-26-000028 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001145197-25-000007 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001145197-26-000028 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)