INSULET CORP

PODDdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

INSULET CORP earns about 86% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 5% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $29.74 and $91.46 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.04B1$1.06B1$1.7B2$2.07B2$2.71B2
Net income$16.8M3$4.6M4$206.3M5$418.3M5$247.1M5
Operating cash flow−$68.1M6$119M7$145.7M8$430.2M8$569.3M8
Capital expenditure$111.9M9$122.9M10$75.6M11$124.9M11$191.6M11
Free cash flow (derived)−$180M6−$3.9M7$70.1M8$305.3M8$377.7M8
Total debt$2.55B12$2.8B12$49.4M13$83.8M14$18.4M14
Cash & equivalents$806.4M15$689.8M16$704.2M16$953.4M16$716.1M16
Diluted shares68.6M69.9M73.6M73.9M71.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$210.78
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$34.37
Free cash flow it threw off
$52.54
Debt you’d be carrying
$2.56

10 shares is a claim on $210.78 of net worth that earned you $34.37 and generated $52.54 of cash last year, against $2.56 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
86% avg · 5y
FY21 3%FY22 1%FY23 310%FY24 88%FY25 30%

It earned about 86% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+5% shares · 5y

Share count is up 5% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 99% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $29.74 and $91.46 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$91.46
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$305.3M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$85.07
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$305.3M
Earnings Power Value
$29.74
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$206.3M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$40.63
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $85.07
The three cases
Bear0.0%$70.39
Base5.0%$85.07
Bull10.0%$102.65

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001145197-23-000020 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001145197-26-000028 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001145197-24-000011 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001145197-25-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001145197-26-000028 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001145197-24-000011 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001145197-25-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001145197-26-000028 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001145197-24-000011 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001145197-25-000007 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001145197-26-000028 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001145197-23-000020 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001145197-25-000007 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001145197-26-000028 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001145197-25-000007 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001145197-26-000028 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)