Pennant Group, Inc.
PNTGdata completeness 100%9 fiscal years on filePennant Group, Inc. earns about 6% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 15% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $3.93 and $12.08 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $439.7M1 | $473.2M2 | $544.9M3 | $695.2M3 | $947.7M3 |
| Net income | $2.7M4 | $6.64M5 | $13.4M6 | $22.6M6 | $29.6M6 |
| Operating cash flow | −$18.2M7 | $9.04M8 | $33.1M9 | $39.3M9 | $48.3M9 |
| Capital expenditure | $6.3M10 | $14.2M11 | $8.11M12 | $8.99M12 | $12M12 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | −$24.5M7 | −$5.13M8 | $25M9 | $30.3M9 | $36.3M9 |
| Total debt | $51.4M13 | $62.9M14 | $63.9M15 | $016 | $173.8M16 |
| Cash & equivalents | $5.19M17 | $2.08M18 | $6.06M18 | $24.2M18 | $17M18 |
| Diluted shares | 30.6M | 30.2M | 30.2M | 32.0M | 35.3M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $105.97 of net worth that earned you $8.38 and generated $10.27 of cash last year, against $49.22 of debt.
It earned about 6% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is up 15% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 238% over the same window.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $3.93 and $12.08 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth5.0%
- fcfBase$30.3M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth5.0%
- fcfBase$30.3M
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$13.4M
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $7.82 |
| Base | 5.0% | $10.79 |
| Bull | 10.0% | $14.34 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001766400-24-000022 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001766400-25-000024 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001766400-26-000014 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001766400-24-000022 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001766400-25-000024 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001766400-26-000014 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001766400-24-000022 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001766400-25-000024 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001766400-26-000014 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001766400-24-000022 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001766400-25-000024 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001766400-26-000014 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001766400-23-000026 (LongTermDebt)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001766400-24-000022 (LongTermDebt)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001766400-25-000024 (LongTermDebt)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001766400-26-000014 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001766400-25-000024 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001766400-26-000014 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)