MeritValue

PENTAIR plc

PNRdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

PENTAIR plc earns about 9% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $38.99 and $104.16 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$3.76B1$4.12B2$4.1B3$4.08B3$4.18B3
Net income$553M4$480.9M5$622.7M6$625.4M6$653.8M6
Operating cash flow$613.2M7$363.3M8$619.2M9$766.7M9$814.8M9
Capital expenditure$60.2M10$85.2M11$76M12$74.4M12$68.8M12
Free cash flow (derived)$553M7$278.1M8$543.2M9$692.3M9$746M9
Total debt$1.79B13$4.63B14$3.98B15$3.28B16$3.28B16
Cash & equivalents$94.5M17$108.9M18$170.3M18$118.7M18$101.6M18
Diluted shares167.5M165.6M166.3M167.1M165.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$233.79
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$39.5
Free cash flow it threw off
$45.08
Debt you’d be carrying
$198.02

10 shares is a claim on $233.79 of net worth that earned you $39.5 and generated $45.08 of cash last year, against $198.02 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
9% avg · 5y
FY21 13%FY22 6%FY23 7%FY24 8%FY25 8%

It earned about 9% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−1% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has risen 83% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $38.99 and $104.16 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$104.16
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth10.6%
  • fcfBase$692.3M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$74.73
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth10.6%
  • fcfBase$692.3M
Earnings Power Value
$38.99
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$622.7M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$45.64
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years10.6%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $74.73
The three cases
Bear0.0%$40.58
Base10.6%$74.73
Bull15.6%$95.73

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 10.6%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000077360-24-000007 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000077360-25-000006 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000077360-26-000007 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000077360-24-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000077360-25-000006 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000077360-26-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000077360-24-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000077360-25-000006 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000077360-26-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000077360-24-000007 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000077360-25-000006 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000077360-26-000007 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000077360-23-000006 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000077360-24-000007 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000077360-25-000006 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000077360-26-000007 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000077360-25-000006 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000077360-26-000007 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)