Pinnacle Financial Partners, Inc.

PNFPdata completeness 88%3 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'pretaxIncome'

The thesis, from the filings

Pinnacle Financial Partners, Inc. earns about 9% on equity, below its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $74.98 and $214.16 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$2.35B1$2.7B1$2.8B1
Net income$562.2M2$475.1M2$641.9M2
Operating cash flow$478.4M3$904.3M3$759M3
Capital expenditure$78.3M4$94.5M4$79.9M4
Free cash flow (derived)$400.1M3$809.8M3$679.1M3
Total debt
Cash & equivalents$2.23B5$3.44B5$3.57B5
Diluted shares76.6M77.1M77.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$906.66
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$82.62
Free cash flow it threw off
$87.41
Debt you’d be carrying

10 shares is a claim on $906.66 of net worth that earned you $82.62 and generated $87.41 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
9% avg · 3y
FY23 9%FY24 7%FY25 9%

It earned about 9% on equity against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+1% shares · 3y

Share count is roughly flat over 3 years — little dilution, little buyback.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $74.98 and $214.16 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$214.16
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$679.1M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$201.01
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$679.1M
Earnings Power Value
$74.98
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$562.2M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$128.31
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $201.01
The three cases
Bear0.0%$170.78
Base5.0%$201.01
Bull10.0%$237.18

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0002082866-26-000018 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0002082866-26-000018 (NetIncomeLoss)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0002082866-26-000018 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0002082866-26-000018 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0002082866-26-000018 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)