MeritValue

PNC FINANCIAL SERVICES GROUP, INC.

PNCdata completeness 88%19 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'capex'

The thesis, from the filings

PNC FINANCIAL SERVICES GROUP, INC. earns about 20% on invested capital, and has bought back 7% of its shares over 5 years. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $155.78 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$19.2B1$21.1B2$21.5B3$21.6B3$23.1B3
Net income$5.73B4$6.11B5$5.65B6$5.95B6$7B6
Operating cash flow$7.21B7$9.08B8$10.1B9$7.88B9$4.38B9
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt—$58.7B10$72.7B11$61.7B12$57.1B12
Cash & equivalents$82.3B13$34.4B14$50.7B14$46.3B14$39.7B14
Diluted shares426.0M412.0M401.0M400.0M396.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$1,529.92
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$176.69
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$1,441.94

10 shares is a claim on $1,529.92 of net worth that earned you $176.69 last year, against $1,441.94 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
20% avg · 5y
FY21 —FY22 12%FY23 20%FY24 24%FY25 24%

It earned an average 20% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−7% shares · 5y

Share count is down 7% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$155.78
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$5.95B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$238.97
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000713676-22-000019 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000713676-25-000027 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000713676-26-000020 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000713676-24-000028 (ProfitLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000713676-25-000027 (ProfitLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000713676-26-000020 (ProfitLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000713676-24-000028 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000713676-25-000027 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000713676-26-000020 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000713676-23-000020 (LongTermDebt)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000713676-25-000027 (LongTermDebt)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000713676-26-000020 (LongTermDebt)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000713676-25-000027 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000713676-26-000020 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)