MeritValue

PATRIOT NATIONAL BANCORP INC

PNBKdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

PATRIOT NATIONAL BANCORP INC earns about 10% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 1843% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$32.4M1$44M2$59M3$52.4M3$47.8M3
Net income$5.09M4$6.16M5−$4.18M6−$39.9M6−$12.7M6
Operating cash flow$7.6M7$7.04M8−$10.7M9$2.68M9−$14.2M9
Capital expenditure$430,00010$414,00011$412,00012$55,00012$172,00012
Free cash flow (derived)$7.17M7$6.62M8−$11.1M9$2.63M9−$14.3M9
Total debt$120.7M13$115.2M14$201.1M15$33.1M16$16.4M16
Cash & equivalents$47M17$38.5M17$66.5M18$162.6M18$207.1M18
Diluted shares4.0M4.0M4.0M4.0M76.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$12.33
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$1.65
Free cash flow it threw off
−$1.87
Debt you’d be carrying
$2.14

10 shares is a claim on $12.33 of net worth that earned you −$1.65 and generated −$1.87 of cash last year, against $2.14 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
10% avg · 5y
FY21 9%FY22 11%FY23 11%FY24 —FY25 —

It earned an average 10% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+1843% shares · 5y

Share count is up 1843% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 86% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-013983 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-017837 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-022508 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-013983 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-017837 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-022508 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-013983 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-017837 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-022508 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-013983 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-017837 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-022508 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-009713 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-013983 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-017837 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-022508 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-009713 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-022508 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)