MeritValue

CPI Card Group Inc.

PMTSdata completeness 100%13 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

CPI Card Group Inc. earns about 5% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $16.97 and $124.1 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$375.1M1$475.7M2$444.5M3$480.6M4$543.5M4
Net income$15.9M5$36.5M6$24M7$19.5M8$15M8
Operating cash flow$20.2M9$31.3M10$34M11$43.3M12$59.5M12
Capital expenditure$10.1M13$17.9M14$6.41M15$9.26M16$18.2M16
Free cash flow (derived)$10.2M9$13.5M10$27.6M11$34.1M12$41.3M12
Total debt$607.3M17$571M18$530M19$560.8M20$573.3M20
Cash & equivalents$20.7M21$11M22$12.4M23$33.5M24$21.7M24
Diluted shares11.8M11.7M11.9M11.9M11.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
−$14.54
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$12.54
Free cash flow it threw off
$34.67
Debt you’d be carrying
$480.91

10 shares is a claim on −$14.54 of net worth that earned you $12.54 and generated $34.67 of cash last year, against $480.91 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
5% avg · 5y
FY21 3%FY22 8%FY23 5%FY24 4%FY25 3%

It earned about 5% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+1% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $16.97 and $124.1 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$124.1
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$34.1M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$46.86
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$34.1M
Earnings Power Value
$16.97
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$19.5M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
book value / share count missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $46.86
The three cases
Bear0.0%−$5.46
Base20.0%$46.86
Bull20.0%$46.86

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-003082 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-002670 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002098 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-023812 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-003082 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-002670 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002098 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-023812 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-003082 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-002670 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002098 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-023812 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-003082 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-002670 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002098 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-023812 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-003082 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-002670 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002098 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-023812 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  21. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-003082 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  22. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-002670 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  23. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002098 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  24. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-023812 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)