MeritValue

PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust

PMTdata completeness 63%16 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'capex'

The thesis, from the filings

PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust earns about 5% on invested capital, and has bought back 11% of its shares over 5 years. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $15.23 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue—————
Net income$56.9M1−$73.3M2$199.7M3$161M3$127.9M3
Operating cash flow−$2.82B4$1.78B5$1.34B6−$2.7B6−$7.21B6
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt$4.49B7$5.07B8$5.15B9$1.01B9$1.09B9
Cash & equivalents—————
Diluted shares97.4M91.4M111.7M86.8M87.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$216.96
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$14.7
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$125.82

10 shares is a claim on $216.96 of net worth that earned you $14.7 last year, against $125.82 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
5% avg · 5y
FY21 5%FY22 3%FY23 11%FY24 2%FY25 2%

It earned an average 5% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−11% shares · 5y

Share count is down 11% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 76% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$15.23
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$127.9M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$21.98
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-018760 (NetIncomeLoss)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-024124 (NetIncomeLoss)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-057041 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-018760 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-024124 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-057041 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001564590-22-007180 (LongTermDebt)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001564590-23-002430 (LongTermDebt)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-018760 (LongTermDebt)