MeritValue

Philip Morris International Inc.

PMdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

The estimate methods put fair value between $60.18 and $117.3 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$31.4B1$31.8B2$35.2B3$37.9B3$40.6B3
Net income$9.11B4$9.05B5$7.81B6$7.06B6$11.3B6
Operating cash flow$12B7$10.8B8$9.2B9$12.2B9$12.2B9
Capital expenditure$748M10$1.08B11$1.32B12$1.44B12$1.57B12
Free cash flow (derived)$11.2B7$9.73B8$7.88B9$10.8B9$10.7B9
Total debt$225M13$5.64B14$1.97B15$137M16$168M16
Cash & equivalents$4.5B17$3.21B18$3.06B19$4.22B20$4.87B20
Diluted shares1.56B1.55B1.55B1.56B1.56B

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
−$64.15
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$72.84
Free cash flow it threw off
$68.45
Debt you’d be carrying
$1.08

10 shares is a claim on −$64.15 of net worth that earned you $72.84 and generated $68.45 of cash last year, against $1.08 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
— avg · 5y

Not enough data in the filings for a return-on-capital reading.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−0% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has fallen 25% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $60.18 and $117.3 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$117.3
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth3.1%
  • fcfBase$10.7B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$115.06
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth3.1%
  • fcfBase$10.7B
Earnings Power Value
$60.18
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$9.05B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
book value / share count missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years3.1%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $115.06
The three cases
Bear0.0%$100.81
Base3.1%$115.06
Bull8.1%$141.55

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 3.1%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001413329-24-000013 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001413329-25-000013 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-005939 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001413329-24-000013 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001413329-25-000013 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-005939 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001413329-24-000013 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001413329-25-000013 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-005939 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001413329-24-000013 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001413329-25-000013 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-005939 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001413329-23-000025 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001413329-24-000013 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001413329-25-000013 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-005939 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001413329-23-000025 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001413329-24-000013 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001413329-25-000013 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-005939 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)