MeritValue

PLEXUS CORP

PLXSdata completeness 88%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

PLEXUS CORP earns about 17% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 5% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $52.13 and $343.61 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$3.48B1$3.93B2$4.21B3$3.96B3$4.03B3
Net income$138.9M4$138.2M5$139.1M6$111.8M6$172.9M6
Operating cash flow$142.6M7−$26.2M8$165.8M9$436.5M9$249.2M9
Capital expenditure$57.1M10$101.6M11$104M12$95.2M12$95.3M12
Free cash flow (derived)$85.5M7−$127.9M8$61.8M9$341.3M9$154M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$270.2M13$274.8M14$256.2M15$345.1M16$306.5M16
Diluted shares29.2M28.4M28.1M27.9M27.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$526.72
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$62.6
Free cash flow it threw off
$55.75
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $526.72 of net worth that earned you $62.6 and generated $55.75 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
17% avg · 5y
FY21 20%FY22 19%FY23 17%FY24 14%FY25 16%

It earned about 17% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−5% shares · 5y

Share count is down 5% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $52.13 and $343.61 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$343.61
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$154M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$192.87
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$154M
Earnings Power Value
$52.13
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$138.9M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$86.13
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $192.87
The three cases
Bear0.0%$90.76
Base20.0%$192.87
Bull20.0%$192.87

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-10-02 · accession 0000785786-23-000066 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-10-01 · accession 0000785786-24-000074 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000785786-25-000064 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-10-02 · accession 0000785786-23-000066 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-10-01 · accession 0000785786-24-000074 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000785786-25-000064 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-10-02 · accession 0000785786-23-000066 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-10-01 · accession 0000785786-24-000074 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000785786-25-000064 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-10-02 · accession 0000785786-23-000066 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-10-01 · accession 0000785786-24-000074 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000785786-25-000064 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-10-02 · accession 0000785786-22-000085 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-10-01 · accession 0000785786-23-000066 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000785786-24-000074 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-28 · accession 0000785786-25-000064 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)