MeritValue

PLUG POWER INC

PLUGdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

PLUG POWER INC earns about -77% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 105% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$502.3M1$701.4M2$891.3M3$628.8M3$709.9M3
Net income−$460M4−$724M5−$1.37B6−$2.1B6−$1.63B6
Operating cash flow−$358.2M7−$828.6M8−$1.11B9−$728.6M9−$535.8M9
Capital expenditure$172.2M10$436.6M11$665.2M12$287.1M12$111.2M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$530.3M7−$1.27B8−$1.77B9−$1.02B9−$647M9
Total debt$30.6M13$14.1M14$6.62M14$200,00015—
Cash & equivalents$2.48B16$690.6M17$135M18$205.7M19$368.5M19
Diluted shares558.2M579.7M595.5M785.0M1.15B

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$8.53
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$14.23
Free cash flow it threw off
−$5.64
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $8.53 of net worth that earned you −$14.23 and generated −$5.64 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-77% avg · 5y
FY21 -16%FY22 -16%FY23 -38%FY24 -107%FY25 -211%

It earned an average -77% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+105% shares · 5y

Share count is up 105% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 99% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-002178 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002049 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-022286 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-002178 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002049 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-022286 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-002178 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002049 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-022286 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-002178 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002049 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-022286 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-002599 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-002178 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002049 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-002599 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-002178 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002049 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-022286 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)