MeritValue

Palantir Technologies Inc.

PLTRdata completeness 88%8 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Palantir Technologies Inc. earns about -26886% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 33% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $0.85 and $27.09 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.54B1$1.91B2$2.23B3$2.87B3$4.48B3
Net income−$520.4M4−$373.7M5$209.8M6$462.2M6$1.63B6
Operating cash flow$333.9M7$223.7M8$712.2M9$1.15B9$2.13B9
Capital expenditure$12.6M10$40M11$15.1M12$12.6M12$33.9M12
Free cash flow (derived)$321.2M7$183.7M8$697.1M9$1.14B9$2.1B9
Total debt$013————
Cash & equivalents$2.29B14$2.6B15$831M16$2.1B16$1.42B16
Diluted shares1.92B2.06B2.30B2.45B2.57B

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$28.8
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$6.33
Free cash flow it threw off
$8.19
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $28.8 of net worth that earned you $6.33 and generated $8.19 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-26886% avg · 5y
FY21 -107594%FY22 —FY23 8%FY24 16%FY25 27%

It earned about -26886% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+33% shares · 5y

Share count is up 33% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $0.85 and $27.09 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$27.09
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$1.14B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$15.06
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$1.14B
Earnings Power Value
$0.85
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$209.8M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$6.39
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $15.06
The three cases
Bear0.0%$6.91
Base20.0%$15.06
Bull20.0%$15.06

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001321655-24-000022 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001321655-25-000022 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001321655-26-000011 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001321655-24-000022 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001321655-25-000022 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001321655-26-000011 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001321655-24-000022 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001321655-25-000022 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001321655-26-000011 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001321655-24-000022 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001321655-25-000022 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001321655-26-000011 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-22-050913 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001321655-24-000022 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001321655-25-000022 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001321655-26-000011 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)