MeritValue

DOUGLAS DYNAMICS, INC

PLOWdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

DOUGLAS DYNAMICS, INC earns about 11% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 3% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $12.39 and $16.94 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$541.5M1$616.1M2$568.2M3$568.5M3$656.1M3
Net income$30.7M4$38.6M5$23.7M6$56.2M6$46.9M6
Operating cash flow$60.5M7$40M8$12.5M9$41.1M9$74.7M9
Capital expenditure$11.9M10$12.4M11$9.77M12$7.76M12$10.8M12
Free cash flow (derived)$48.7M7$27.6M8$2.7M9$33.4M9$63.9M9
Total debt$11.1M13$218.9M14$243.2M15$147.5M16$156.4M16
Cash & equivalents$37M17$20.7M18$24.2M19$5.12M20$8.3M20
Diluted shares23.0M22.9M23.0M23.5M23.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$119.15
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$19.85
Free cash flow it threw off
$27.04
Debt you’d be carrying
$66.23

10 shares is a claim on $119.15 of net worth that earned you $19.85 and generated $27.04 of cash last year, against $66.23 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
11% avg · 5y
FY21 17%FY22 9%FY23 5%FY24 14%FY25 11%

It earned about 11% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+3% shares · 5y

Share count is up 3% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 1305% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $12.39 and $16.94 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$12.39
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$33.4M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$13.91
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$33.4M
Earnings Power Value
$16.94
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$38.6M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$22.92
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $13.91
The three cases
Bear0.0%$13.91
Base0.0%$13.91
Bull5.0%$18.8

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-005713 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-005050 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-005316 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-005713 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-005050 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-005316 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-005713 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-005050 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-005316 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-005713 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-005050 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-005316 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-003961 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-005713 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-005050 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-005316 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-003961 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-005713 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-005050 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-005316 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)