MeritValue

Palomar Holdings, Inc.

PLMRdata completeness 88%9 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

Palomar Holdings, Inc. earns about 18% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 5% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $29.86 and $570.06 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$247.8M1$327.1M2$375.9M3$553.9M3$876M3
Net income$45.8M4$52.2M5$79.2M6$117.6M6$197.1M6
Operating cash flow$87.8M7$169.6M8$116.1M9$261.2M9$409.1M9
Capital expenditure$18,00010$313,00011$15,00012$243,00012$137,00012
Free cash flow (derived)$87.8M7$169.3M8$116.1M9$260.9M9$409M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$50.3M13$68.1M14$51.5M15$80.4M16$106.9M16
Diluted shares26.1M25.8M25.3M26.2M27.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$342.97
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$71.7
Free cash flow it threw off
$148.8
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $342.97 of net worth that earned you $71.7 and generated $148.8 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
18% avg · 5y
FY21 13%FY22 17%FY23 20%FY24 18%FY25 24%

It earned about 18% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+5% shares · 5y

Share count is up 5% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $29.86 and $570.06 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$570.06
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$260.9M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$313.39
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$260.9M
Earnings Power Value
$29.86
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$79.2M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$74.38
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $313.39
The three cases
Bear0.0%$139.52
Base20.0%$313.39
Bull20.0%$313.39

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-005385 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-005069 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-067364 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-005385 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-005069 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-067364 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-005385 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-005069 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-067364 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-005385 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-005069 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-067364 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-002465 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-005385 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-005069 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-067364 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)