MeritValue

Pelagos Insurance Capital Ltd

PLGOdata completeness 100%5 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

Pelagos Insurance Capital Ltd earns about 24% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 47% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $11 and $65.71 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.19B1$1.51B2$3.6B3$2.42B3$2.5B3
Net income$68.3M4$52.6M5$2.13B5$113.3M5$225.5M6
Operating cash flow$345.8M7$741.4M8$495.2M9$618.2M9−$408.3M9
Capital expenditure$7.1M10$18.8M11$6.4M12$4.6M12$1.2M12
Free cash flow (derived)$338.7M7$722.6M8$488.8M9$613.6M9−$409.5M9
Total debt—$447.5M13$448.2M14$448.9M15$843.2M15
Cash & equivalents$476M16$1.22B17$712.4M18$743M19$873M19
Diluted shares200.4M199.3M114.3M115.6M106.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$224.81
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$21.13
Free cash flow it threw off
−$38.36
Debt you’d be carrying
$78.99

10 shares is a claim on $224.81 of net worth that earned you $21.13 and generated −$38.36 of cash last year, against $78.99 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
24% avg · 5y
FY21 5%FY22 5%FY23 94%FY24 5%FY25 10%

It earned about 24% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−47% shares · 5y

Share count is down 47% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 88% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $11 and $65.71 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$60.78
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$488.8M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$65.71
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$488.8M
Earnings Power Value
$11
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$113.3M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$32.67
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $65.71
The three cases
Bear0.0%$65.71
Base0.0%$65.71
Bull5.0%$81.54

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001636639-24-000026 (Revenues)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001636639-25-000022 (Revenues)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-015356 (Revenues)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001636639-24-000026 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001636639-25-000022 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-015356 (ProfitLoss)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001636639-24-000026 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001636639-25-000022 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-015356 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001636639-24-000026 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001636639-25-000022 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-015356 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001636639-24-000026 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001636639-25-000022 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-015356 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001636639-25-000022 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  17. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001636639-24-000026 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001636639-25-000022 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-015356 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)