MeritValue

Prologis, Inc.

PLDdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Prologis, Inc. earns about 6% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 25% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $36.05 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$4.76B1$5.97B2$8.02B3$8.2B3$8.79B3
Net income$2.94B4$3.36B5$3.06B6$3.73B6$3.33B6
Operating cash flow$3B7$4.13B8$5.37B9$4.91B9$5.01B9
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt$215.3M10$23.9B10$29B11$30.9B12$35B12
Cash & equivalents$556M13$278M14$530M15$1.32B15$1.15B15
Diluted shares764.8M811.6M951.8M953.6M956.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$555.93
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$34.78
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$366.18

10 shares is a claim on $555.93 of net worth that earned you $34.78 last year, against $366.18 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
6% avg · 5y
FY21 10%FY22 5%FY23 5%FY24 6%FY25 5%

It earned an average 6% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+25% shares · 5y

Share count is up 25% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 16174% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$36.05
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$3.33B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$66.73
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-014539 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-021272 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-051453 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-014539 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-021272 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-051453 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-014539 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-021272 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-051453 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-014539 (LongTermDebt)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-021272 (LongTermDebt)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-051453 (LongTermDebt)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-014539 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-021272 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-051453 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)