MeritValue

PLUMAS BANCORP

PLBCdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

PLUMAS BANCORP earns about 64% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 17% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $45.51 and $131.88 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$48.1M1$59.8M2$74.6M3$84.3M3$101.6M3
Net income$21M4$26.4M5$29.8M6$28.6M6$29.6M6
Operating cash flow−$8.42M7$56.9M8$38.3M9$30.5M9$21.6M9
Capital expenditure$931,00010$3.02M11$2.28M12$678,00012$1.31M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$9.35M7$53.9M8$36.1M9$29.8M9$20.3M9
Total debt$013$013———
Cash & equivalents$380.6M14$183.4M15$85.7M16$82M17$80.6M17
Diluted shares5.6M5.9M5.9M6.0M6.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$400.61
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$45.45
Free cash flow it threw off
$31.11
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $400.61 of net worth that earned you $45.45 and generated $31.11 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
64% avg · 5y
FY21 —FY22 —FY23 54%FY24 86%FY25 53%

It earned about 64% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+17% shares · 5y

Share count is up 17% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $45.51 and $131.88 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$131.88
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth9.0%
  • fcfBase$29.8M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$108.55
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth9.0%
  • fcfBase$29.8M
Earnings Power Value
$45.51
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$28.6M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$63.97
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years9.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $108.55
The three cases
Bear0.0%$77.77
Base9.0%$108.55
Bull14.0%$130.32

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 9.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-008616 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-008351 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-008956 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-008616 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-008351 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-008956 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-008616 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-008351 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-008956 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-008616 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-008351 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-008956 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-006797 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-006797 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-008616 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-008351 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-008956 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)