MeritValue

PARK OHIO HOLDINGS CORP

PKOHdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

PARK OHIO HOLDINGS CORP earns about 16% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 14% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $5.78 and $7.57 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.28B1$1.49B2$1.66B3$1.66B3$1.6B3
Net income−$24.8M4−$14.2M5$7.8M6$31.8M6$23.8M6
Operating cash flow−$43.3M7−$26.6M8$53.4M9$35M9$42.3M9
Capital expenditure$22.3M10$26.9M11$28.2M12$31.4M12$40.3M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$65.6M7−$53.5M8$25.2M9$3.6M9$2M9
Total debt$6.3M13$10.9M14$9.4M15$8.4M16$8.3M16
Cash & equivalents$54.1M17$58.2M18$54.8M19$53.1M20$44.8M20
Diluted shares12.3M12.2M12.5M13.2M14.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$272.59
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$17.03
Free cash flow it threw off
$1.43
Debt you’d be carrying
$5.94

10 shares is a claim on $272.59 of net worth that earned you $17.03 and generated $1.43 of cash last year, against $5.94 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
16% avg · 5y
FY21 8%FY22 21%FY23 29%FY24 14%FY25 6%

It earned about 16% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+14% shares · 5y

Share count is up 14% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 32% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $5.78 and $7.57 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$7.57
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$3.6M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$7.18
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$3.6M
Earnings Power Value
$5.78
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$7.8M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$32.29
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $7.18
The three cases
Bear0.0%$6.29
Base5.0%$7.18
Bull10.0%$8.25

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000076282-24-000013 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000076282-25-000013 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000076282-26-000007 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000076282-24-000013 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000076282-25-000013 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000076282-26-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000076282-22-000014 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000076282-25-000013 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivitiesContinuingOperations)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000076282-26-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivitiesContinuingOperations)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000076282-24-000013 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000076282-25-000013 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000076282-26-000007 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000076282-23-000014 (DebtCurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000076282-24-000013 (DebtCurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000076282-25-000013 (DebtCurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000076282-26-000007 (DebtCurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000076282-23-000014 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000076282-24-000013 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000076282-25-000013 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000076282-26-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)