MeritValue

PACKAGING CORP OF AMERICA

PKGdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

PACKAGING CORP OF AMERICA earns about 9% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 5% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $67.69 and $93.11 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$7.73B1$8.48B2$7.8B3$8.38B3$8.99B3
Net income$841.1M4$1.03B5$765.2M6$805.1M6$774.1M6
Operating cash flow$1.09B7$1.5B8$1.32B9$1.19B9$1.56B9
Capital expenditure$605.1M10$824.2M11$469.7M12$669.7M12$828.9M12
Free cash flow (derived)$489M7$670.8M8$845.4M9$521.5M9$728.6M9
Total debt$4.96B13$4.97B14$5.76B15$4.97B16$7.96B16
Cash & equivalents$618.7M17$320M18$648M19$685M20$529M20
Diluted shares94.5M92.7M89.5M89.5M89.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$513.17
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$86.4
Free cash flow it threw off
$81.32
Debt you’d be carrying
$888.37

10 shares is a claim on $513.17 of net worth that earned you $86.4 and generated $81.32 of cash last year, against $888.37 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
9% avg · 5y
FY21 9%FY22 12%FY23 8%FY24 9%FY25 6%

It earned about 9% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−5% shares · 5y

Share count is down 5% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 60% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $67.69 and $93.11 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$86.04
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth6.0%
  • fcfBase$728.6M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$67.69
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth6.0%
  • fcfBase$728.6M
Earnings Power Value
$93.11
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$805.1M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$99.53
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years6.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $67.69
The three cases
Bear0.0%$33.25
Base6.0%$67.69
Bull11.0%$102.55

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 6.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-022794 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-028533 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-074129 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-022794 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-028533 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-074129 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-022794 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-028533 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-074129 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-022794 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-028533 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-074129 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-003990 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-022794 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-028533 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-074129 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-003990 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-022794 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-028533 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-074129 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)