MeritValue

Park Hotels & Resorts Inc.

PKdata completeness 100%11 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Park Hotels & Resorts Inc. earns about 2% on invested capital, and has bought back 16% of its shares over 5 years. The estimate methods put fair value between $1.33 and $5.05 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.36B1$2.5B2$2.7B3$2.6B3$2.54B3
Net income−$459M4$162M5$97M6$212M6−$283M6
Operating cash flow−$137M7$409M8$503M9$429M9$398M9
Capital expenditure$54M10$168M11$285M12$227M12$296M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$191M7$241M8$218M9$202M9$102M9
Total debt$4.71B13$4.64B14$3.79B15$3.87B16$3.86B17
Cash & equivalents$688M18$906M19$717M20$402M21$232M21
Diluted shares236.0M228.0M215.0M209.0M199.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$157.34
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$14.22
Free cash flow it threw off
$5.13
Debt you’d be carrying
$193.77

10 shares is a claim on $157.34 of net worth that earned you −$14.22 and generated $5.13 of cash last year, against $193.77 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
2% avg · 5y
FY21 -2%FY22 5%FY23 4%FY24 5%FY25 -1%

It earned an average 2% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−16% shares · 5y

Share count is down 16% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 18% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $1.33 and $5.05 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$1.33
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$202M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$202M
Earnings Power Value
$5.05
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$97M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001617406-24-000018 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001617406-25-000006 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001617406-26-000006 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001617406-24-000018 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001617406-25-000006 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001617406-26-000006 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001617406-24-000018 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001617406-25-000006 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001617406-26-000006 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001617406-24-000018 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001617406-25-000006 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001617406-26-000006 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-22-001484 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-004127 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001617406-24-000018 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001617406-25-000006 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001617406-26-000006 (LongTermDebt)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-004127 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001617406-24-000018 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001617406-25-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  21. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001617406-26-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)