MeritValue

PINTEREST, INC.

PINSdata completeness 88%9 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

PINTEREST, INC. earns about 7% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $4.77 and $82.92 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$2.58B1$2.8B2$3.06B3$3.65B3$4.22B3
Net income$316.4M4−$96M5−$35.6M6$1.86B6$416.9M6
Operating cash flow$752.9M7$469.2M8$613M9$964.6M9$1.28B9
Capital expenditure$9.03M10$29M11$8.06M12$24.6M12$32.4M12
Free cash flow (derived)$743.9M7$440.2M8$604.9M9$940M9$1.25B9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$1.42B13$1.61B14$1.36B15$1.14B15$969.3M15
Diluted shares691.7M665.7M674.6M698.4M687.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$68.99
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$6.06
Free cash flow it threw off
$18.2
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $68.99 of net worth that earned you $6.06 and generated $18.2 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
7% avg · 5y
FY21 20%FY22 -4%FY23 -1%FY24 8%FY25 11%

It earned about 7% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−1% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $4.77 and $82.92 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$82.92
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$940M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$45.97
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$940M
Earnings Power Value
$4.77
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$316.4M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$9.73
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $45.97
The three cases
Bear0.0%$20.94
Base20.0%$45.97
Bull20.0%$45.97

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001506293-24-000018 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001506293-25-000022 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001506293-26-000021 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001506293-24-000018 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001506293-25-000022 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001506293-26-000021 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001506293-24-000018 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001506293-25-000022 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001506293-26-000021 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001506293-24-000018 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001506293-25-000022 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001506293-26-000021 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001506293-24-000018 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001506293-25-000022 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001506293-26-000021 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)