MeritValue

P3 Health Partners Inc.

PIIIdata completeness 88%7 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

P3 Health Partners Inc. earns about -193% on invested capital, and has bought back 92% of its shares over 5 years. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$578.6M1$1.05B2$1.27B3$1.5B4$1.46B4
Net income−$146.4M5−$270.1M6−$57.8M7−$135.8M8−$147.9M8
Operating cash flow−$51.1M9−$126M10−$76M11−$110.1M12−$91.2M12
Capital expenditure$3.29M13$2.23M14$1.83M15$015—
Free cash flow (derived)−$54.4M9−$128.3M10−$77.9M11−$110.1M12—
Total debt—$188.8M16$216.6M17$293M18$501.8M18
Cash & equivalents$5.3M19$17.5M20$36.3M21$38.8M22$25M22
Diluted shares—41.6M294.6M2.9M3.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
−$474.86
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$452.58
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$1,534.98

10 shares is a claim on −$474.86 of net worth that earned you −$452.58 last year, against $1,534.98 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-193% avg · 5y
FY21 -44%FY22 -701%FY23 -49%FY24 -79%FY25 -92%

It earned an average -193% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−92% shares · 5y

Share count is down 92% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 166% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-02 · accession 0001104659-23-039643 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-013625 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-015305 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001832511-26-000011 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-02 · accession 0001104659-23-039643 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-013625 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-015305 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001832511-26-000011 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-02 · accession 0001104659-23-039643 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-013625 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-015305 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001832511-26-000011 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-02 · accession 0001104659-23-039643 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-013625 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-015305 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-013625 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-015305 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001832511-26-000011 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-02 · accession 0001104659-23-039643 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-013625 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  21. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-015305 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  22. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001832511-26-000011 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)