MeritValue

IMPINJ INC

PIdata completeness 100%12 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

IMPINJ INC earns about -4% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 21% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $10.27 and $12.63 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$190.3M1$257.8M2$307.5M3$366.1M3$361.1M3
Net income−$51.3M4−$24.3M5−$43.4M6$40.8M6−$10.8M6
Operating cash flow$6.47M7$641,0008−$49.4M9$128.3M9$58.7M9
Capital expenditure$16.2M10$12.1M11$18.6M12$17.1M12$12.9M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$9.77M7−$11.4M8−$68M9$111.2M9$45.9M9
Total debt$576.6M13$560.5M14$281.9M15$567M16$561.8M17
Cash & equivalents$123.9M18$19.6M19$94.8M20$46.1M21$48.2M21
Diluted shares24.2M25.5M26.8M29.5M29.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$71.45
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$3.7
Free cash flow it threw off
$15.67
Debt you’d be carrying
$191.84

10 shares is a claim on $71.45 of net worth that earned you −$3.7 and generated $15.67 of cash last year, against $191.84 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-4% avg · 5y
FY21 -9%FY22 -3%FY23 -14%FY24 7%FY25 -1%

It earned about -4% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+21% shares · 5y

Share count is up 21% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $10.27 and $12.63 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$12.63
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$45.9M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$10.27
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$45.9M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $10.27
The three cases
Bear0.0%$4.85
Base5.0%$10.27
Bull10.0%$16.75

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-013874 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-017077 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-042813 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-013874 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-017077 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-042813 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-013874 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-017077 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-042813 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-013874 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-017077 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-042813 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-002614 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-013874 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-017077 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-042813 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-042813 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-002614 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-013874 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-017077 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  21. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-042813 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)