MeritValue

Sprott Physical Gold Trust

PHYSdata completeness 63%10 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'revenue'; no data for concept 'capex'; no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'epsDiluted'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'; no data for concept 'incomeTaxExpense'; no data for concept 'pretaxIncome'

The thesis, from the filings

Sprott Physical Gold Trust earns about 13% on equity, but has diluted owners by 38% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $15.77 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue—————
Net income−$198M1−$82.5M2$723.5M3$1.73B4$5.95B4
Operating cash flow−$20.1M5−$22.7M6−$24.6M7−$27.3M8−$48.2M8
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$6.98M9$294,00010$25.5M11$8.92M11$26.9M11
Diluted shares343.3M343.3M401.3M418.1M475.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$336
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$125.11
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $336 of net worth that earned you $125.11 last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
13% avg · 5y
FY21 -4%FY22 -1%FY23 11%FY24 20%FY25 37%

It earned an average 13% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+38% shares · 5y

Share count is up 38% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$15.77
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$723.5M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 40-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001387131-23-003843 (ProfitLoss)
  2. 40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001999371-24-003926 (ProfitLoss)
  3. 40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001999371-25-002923 (ProfitLoss)
  4. 40-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001999371-26-005820 (ProfitLoss)
  5. 40-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001387131-23-003843 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001999371-24-003926 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001999371-25-002923 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 40-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001999371-26-005820 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 40-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001999371-24-003926 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  10. 40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001999371-25-002923 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  11. 40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001999371-26-005820 (CashAndCashEquivalents)