MeritValue

Phoenix Energy One, LLC

PHXE-Pdata completeness 75%3 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'capex'; no data for concept 'epsDiluted'; no data for concept 'incomeTaxExpense'; no data for concept 'pretaxIncome'

The thesis, from the filings

Phoenix Energy One, LLC earns about 85% on equity. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$118.1M1$281.2M1$687.2M1
Net income−$16.2M2−$24.8M2$66.1M2
Operating cash flow−$1.02M3$101.2M3$301.1M3
Capital expenditure———
Free cash flow (derived)———
Total debt—$898.5M4$2.91B4
Cash & equivalents$5.43M5$120.8M6$65.8M6
Diluted shares———

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
85% avg · 3y
FY23 —FY24 —FY25 85%

It earned an average 85% on equity over 3 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
— shares · 3y

Total debt has risen 224% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-110825 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-110825 (NetIncomeLoss)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-110825 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-110825 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-110825 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-110825 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)