MeritValue

PULTEGROUP INC/MI/

PHMdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'pretaxIncome'

The thesis, from the filings

PULTEGROUP INC/MI/ earns about 25% on equity, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 23% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $135.15 and $532.34 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$13.7B1$16B2$16.1B3$17.9B3$17.3B3
Net income$1.95B4$2.62B5$2.6B6$3.08B6$2.22B6
Operating cash flow$1B7$668.5M8$2.2B9$1.68B9$1.87B9
Capital expenditure$72.8M10$112.7M11$92.2M12$118.5M12$122.7M12
Free cash flow (derived)$931.2M7$555.8M8$2.1B9$1.56B9$1.75B9
Total debt$63.9M13$77.3M14$73.5M15$31.1M16$43.9M17
Cash & equivalents$1.78B18$1.05B19$1.81B20$1.61B21$1.98B21
Diluted shares259.9M236.2M221.2M209.8M199.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$650.78
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$111.19
Free cash flow it threw off
$87.63
Debt you’d be carrying
$2.2

10 shares is a claim on $650.78 of net worth that earned you $111.19 and generated $87.63 of cash last year, against $2.2 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
25% avg · 5y
FY21 26%FY22 29%FY23 25%FY24 25%FY25 17%

It earned about 25% on equity, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−23% shares · 5y

Share count is down 23% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 31% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $135.15 and $532.34 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$532.34
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$1.75B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$295.41
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$1.75B
Earnings Power Value
$135.15
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$2.6B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$127.6
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $295.41
The three cases
Bear0.0%$134.91
Base20.0%$295.41
Bull20.0%$295.41

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000822416-24-000010 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000822416-25-000007 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000822416-26-000007 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000822416-24-000010 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000822416-25-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000822416-26-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000822416-24-000010 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000822416-25-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000822416-26-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000822416-24-000010 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000822416-25-000007 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000822416-26-000007 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000822416-22-000007 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000822416-23-000007 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000822416-24-000010 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000822416-25-000007 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0000822416-26-000007 (LongTermDebt)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000822416-23-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000822416-24-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000822416-25-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  21. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000822416-26-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)